West 2014: What about China Video ( while available + youtube transcript ) Plus Nuke California Claims

EEV:  PLA: War Games Plan to Nuke Seattle ,L.A. San Francisco and San Diego at about 27:30 Possible kill target of 5-12 million Americans


Transcript: A Youtube Transcript – Accuracy is Sketchy

1:08
from her store in the navy with what is now I’m socket Alan waters
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waiters for anyone else’s he rehearses on the tip of the spear
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executing the strategy for rebalance in the asia-pacific
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I am a bill gortney or we forces commander who was taken
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the most strategic approach I’ve ever seen to attacking the readiness kill
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chain
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keeping our forces world I’d be remiss if I didn’t mesh
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mention averell John Green or C you know whose out
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himself on that point and today
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Malaysia and the Philippines meeting with counterparts
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allies in the asia-pacific this man who served four times in the NA
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has strategically and carefully craft legal United States Navy 31
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toughest and most austere times for history
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sequestration and continuing resolutions
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we’re still afloat we’re still come back credible
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and we’re word by whose sailing directions
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and its navigation I think that spurs strategic just because you take off the
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uniform doesn’t mean you’re strategists anymore
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strategist Meritus the United States Navy
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is James diarrhea several James every is my former boss and mentor
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from sac your in Europe almost every race has become
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the chairman of the board love the Naval Institute he never left us
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is still mentors the Rat Pack for strategy instructors
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in the Navy which I’m probably apartment you are too and so
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all that said i think is we draw down from to land wars
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this is not only going to be the Maritime Dec
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but it’s going to be a merit I’m century and what you’re gonna hear today
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is a very important part piece of that pie
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in our maritime strategy what about china I
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is trying to the Panda or the drug and you can hear some different views about
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that
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it’s a very important assumption in america time strategy
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and I’ll tell you a secret all week I’ve been walking around with
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final draft maritime strategy in this pack final draft
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I’ve gone to a lot of these up cloakroom
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meetings and discussion sections and I’ve made some pending changes because
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by several show Howard
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animal no McQuilkin are responsible for delivering this is
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you know spring so I’m a strategy sleeper cell
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amongst and I’d be willing to hear from any view on
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what you think ought to go on the final draft maritime strategy
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can show to yet because we have to wait and see what
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happens the Quadrennial Defense Review we will be aligned
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and will be out there will be moving forward with our next
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strategy one other questions we’re asking is
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in 2007 we wrote the Cooper strategy for the 21st century China wasn’t mentioned
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should be in this strategy in the context
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love a global purveyor
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security or a potential adversary
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and you get a chance to answer that rhetorical question yourself
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as we navigate their relationship with other navies including China
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si nos taken the lead in establishing number up to you lawrence’s
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within the N 35 plans and policy written strategy organization
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up now we revel dog
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and what was our former defense attache Moscow
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fluent in Russian is Lawrence Russian appropriately so
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he took averell jerk off around on his counterpart visit
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and spoke primarily influence rushing to him his entire time United States
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that builds mutual trust respect and partnerships
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goes a long way so last summer when President Obama prison she met and sunny
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once
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there were some things that came out of that meeting
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five pillars for a new relationship between our two countries
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table by President Xi quality in a great power relationship mutual respect
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a win-win for both parties mutual trust
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comprehensiveness inclusiveness and out of that an agreement
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to talk about confidence-building measures rules
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behaviors see so when I got to my job last August’s you know ask me to be the
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lead for of NAB
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on confidence-building measures rules behavior in partnership
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with pay com become commander his staff in under the umbrella
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leadership Department of Defense and Ephesus
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secretary unstable so
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I became Lawrence China and
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it’s very important that we have this discussion with their Chinese
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counterparts
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on the norms standards of behavior consistent with international
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institutions conventions and treaties
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child support rules of the road they agree to
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UN Convention on the law of the sea they’ve signed
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we have we agree all the principles that are in there Chicago Convention
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on operations civil military air and maritime airspace
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to use the code for unexpected encounters see
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so we gotta find the common ground and figure out
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how we’re going to operate in this big ocean in the western Pacific together
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and peacefully and without incident without miscalculation
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misperception what qualifies me to do this two things 1i am a non-state
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scholar I’m not fluent
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in Mandarin but that’s the care side house I can see
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the views the guy sitting on the other side of the table
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through the lens that he sees the world that’s what I’m trying to do
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has announced its go secondly stick side
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houses at the time I was named does a senior Steering Group Director
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there see about that scares a lot of people including the Chinese
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thats stick it’s been a fascinating
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measure last five months have been to China twice once was
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cap to do rewash I was that escort officer
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Revolution Glee six days worth
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this you know the Chinese navy joined the Chinese navy
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in 1968 fifty years
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have active service seven years to see you know this is a man who calls them
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all on
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Mr Keating number of it his closest personal American friends
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remains because he still talks about
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is fiercely proud his navy of China’s rise
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in america time seven years to see you know and he will probably
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remain on active duty and potentially at last
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I’m a greener and his second and so am a career has gotten to know him as well
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those six days I was with them from sunup to sundown we started here
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in San Diego wheat or Jefferson City summary we went to
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USS Carl Vinson flew off the Deccan message sixty
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landed underway on the Littoral Combat Ship Fort Worth
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140 knots off the coast of San Diego brought him back the next day we gonna
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be 22
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flew down to Camp Pendleton the word 10 Journal 2011 World speakers guess
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Camp Pendleton solve his Marines better part of the day
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and then back to washington ever woo is intelligent
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engaging and calculating
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he’s got a very dry sense with those six days represented a continuum
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the greatest and the most challenging chess match
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my career with the Foreign Office and I what
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I loved every minute be brought within five major commanders
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CEO loaning their carrier jobs wrong fluent in English
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educated in the UK captained either Top Gun
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Chinese maverick no kidding even looks like Tom Cruise
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first guy to catch the tail hook on their carrier he was invited to the
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teleconference by advocating
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our captain wong the third we or third flotilla commander
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these tryna see week i captained August risk water commander
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re reproduce comic so as a counterpart visit
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about to ever was time the state’s bill and I want to
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Beijing launcher on docs ago Eva Ferguson you hear from him later today
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are red carp we toured New York Liu Yong
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DG we got underway in their brand new Corvette
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we sail to their sovereign base and doxie del with toward you wan
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their independent proportions marino’s take pictures everything below decks on
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the summary
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respect act or so that was a high in a relationship as soon as we left
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on the 23rd November tried to clear the air defense identification so
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that was a subject and you saw the results that the press and the vice
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president’s visit to Beijing
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shortly thereafter on the 5th December the CalPERS incident between
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downing the carrier with Josh on the captain who visit the United States on
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the bridge
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in our commanding officer in a discussion or disagreement over
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operations with due regard by our bustling international waters
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and you saw that way we’ll talk about today it did not preclude the defense
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policy consultation
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native talks the following week in Beijing
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headed by deputies sector solving I went with him
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and we agreed to the built a mill engagement planned for 2014 with our
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Chinese counterparts
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20 percent more than we did last year
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that’s progress including their participation for the first time ever in
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rempac
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now let me lose my team James Holmes professor from
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Naval War College is gonna give you a strategic overview he is the coauthor
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Red Storm rising in the pacific I was on immigrants transition team three years
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ago he told me to read two books
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monsoon by Kaplan and red star rising buy homes
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that’s why seeger is an expert in this field cab Jim purnell
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pack we can to use spectacular intelligence officer who was here last
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year
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you get your juices flowing the eight seen nothing yet way to it comes up
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talks today Dave Adams brilliant Submariner
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former CEO the Santa Fe speechwriter for a moment
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commander up the up PRT
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in Khost in Afghanistan up
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the Provincial Reconstruction Team he was mentioned and secretary Gates
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book duty as the guy who had
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model to run a PRT
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dave’s got a bronze star he’s now the head of the commanders
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initiatives group its seventh week from a Robert Thomas is a prolific authors
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got another one coming up proceedings
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you’ll enjoy was going to him steve bell is our Lord
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user international were works for or jack in the pentagon
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is done six am MCA’s which are the Military Merit I’m consultation talks
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with the chinese he understands them he understands our vernacular
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you can tell you the difference between their view freemen navigation free
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passage and they’ll realize billows
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I joked with a nice a deal you’ll ask us you’re like harvey keitel in pulp
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fiction
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your the cleaner gonna bring us all together day they elicit extremely
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strategic officer strategic thinkers like a talk about beginning
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is one of our best and brightest is going to 3rd fleet to work for Apple
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florida has been working for
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see no’s last to see you knows as the head up there
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Pacific than a pack organization
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which is organization that deals with asia-pacific Poor’s
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costs of course you know deals been over there
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China many times and he’ll tell you what it’s like from intelligence officers
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perspective services China desk oh and I before he came into work for Maria
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without any further delays German
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registered thank you
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several by myself in the unusual position the
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controversy one on the panel I guess that’s what happens when you get matched
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up with the gym
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no such as this more photos
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the impossible task describing the strategic challenge
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oppose did 5 to 7 minutes
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so it’s a complete rundown is clearly a possible that the Institute positive
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always trying to get the best America in the strategic competition presently
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underway
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such an excursion could be the beginning was
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is your water sometimes getting the China cannot match the United States and
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its allies militarily
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some point to Chinese hard work leaving it lacks decades behind our
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other commentators but make much abroad budgetary numbers
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because the United States spends the next X countries combined
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they say we’re number one for the foreseeable future basically
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who spends the most wins you can argue that the big homie wat
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finger we’re number one so such operations could be true but not
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especially relevant to the competition
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in fact The Godfather a strategic do you recall Klaus puts
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sees three ways lesser competitor can he said a stronger one
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you can do so well using it little if any force it without
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duly disrupting the regional or merely needs to compete smart
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persuaded weaker contested can read the router it supported
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unable to carry on the struggle you could throw down is armed forces or
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perhaps in cádiz regime and those
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when the right to dictate terms as Beijing want to fight
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no hardly we make much revisions preference for winning without fighting
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but in fact does seem government relishes the cost
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the hardships in the uncertainty of armed conflict
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so it’s it’s it’s fair to say no one wants war
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nonetheless boy who’s trying to build a maritime force capable of defeating the
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largest
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allied contingent it’s likely to face that’s held my hand
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another one agreed euros measures the adequacy such a force
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think about it delay has the luxury of concentrating all its forces and effort
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just a fraction of the US Armed Forces
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which as I hardly need to sell this audience are dispersed around the globe
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performing a variety of missions
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so it stands to reason that the only forces could be stronger workouts
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even if the roomie weaker overall
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there’s precedent for this in our own history me and for example believe that
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a modest US Navy battle fleet standing astride the sea lanes connecting Great
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Britain with its positions in the carribean
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would have regretted president Madison him its diplomatic
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leverage in the war the team’s World you thought it might have even dubbed her
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wars because US Navy could hold British interests
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Rhys made went on to urge the United States to make it so
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number one in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico at the turn from the
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native to the 20th century
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it so it did a lesser fleet it seems can make it so
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locally supreme in the waters that matter most
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was good for america a century ago could be good for china today so long as the
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confines its interest in nearby waters and skies
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appealing to bring sure based fire support tactical aircraft
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a panoply of anti-ship missiles and so forth to bear
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hundreds of miles distant from the mainland closed
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so it’s not just the late maybe they can concentrate in waters important to
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beijing
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it’s the Navy plus power land-based or more Chinese
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she power chinese-american time as opposed to enable
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strategy through and through so Beijing to go to Mass superior might at the
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decisive please
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please the decisive time it to where it should combat prove
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on avoidable clause which would applaud this logic
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local superiority as with me
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so that’s one way to win second way to win posits observes that one too but we
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can win by convincing the other
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pecans here let’s consult a living strategist henry kissinger
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just knows that one competitor can deter another by displaying
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purple capabilities by just demonstrating the resolve to use them
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in by persuading that upon it that you would use them under certain world
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circumstances so deterrence it seems is a product to force
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will and the opponents believe in our forces will
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if their portal opponent is sufficiently impressed refrain from the actions that
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we want to deter
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the same might be said of coercion if we can affect it a point to going to the
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competitor
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energy believes will pull the trigger under certain circumstances
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he may well take the positive action that we wish him to take
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so he may do refrain from doing what we want
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so because we persuaded is unlikely to wear
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that’s cause it’s a second way third wheel
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is a very into the second cause which maintains the 10 competitor can prevail
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over another bike paths
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by convincing that adversary that you wouldn’t be able to win
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he can’t win at any cost acceptable to
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strategic competition then is a real sense hit
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closets notes the the while you have the political object determines the
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magnitude
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in the duration of the effort a belligerent expense to obtain that
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object
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it determines how many lives how much national treasure
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and how many other resources that could test it puts it to the effort
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and for how long value the object amounts to the price repaired
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prepared to pay for our goals now we can ship in attacking this
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cost-benefit calculus as well if I can drive up the cost over and over to them
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by making it to resource intensive by dragging it out or both
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cost-benefit logic should prompt them to relinquish his goals
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I will raise the price above what he’s willing to pay based on his old
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political calculations
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if you abide by cost-benefit logic should virtually cut his losses
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in abandon the effort so you see where I’m going with this
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by fielding a percipient the axis capabilities to be a lake an attempt to
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persuade Washington that the ins
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including the defensive allies such as Japan or Taiwan
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or worth the expense eating try to disheartened our leaders
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convincing in the US and its allies cannot prevail within the Asian
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contested zone
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and if all else fails people to make it so locally superior for long enough to
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fulfill its operational
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strategic objectives America it hardly needs restating is America
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nation reliant on its navy is Marine Corps
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in its to start for its standing in the world in effect then
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Beijing can ask President Obama who happens to our
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whoever happens to occupy the White House
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is your alliance with Japan or Taiwan with the Philippines or whoever
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worth losing a major part the Pacific Fleet what’s your superpower status two
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pairs
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that’s a serious question in the answer might be no
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it depends on where these things fit into the US strategic packing
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or or our leadership
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has a tease the times of trouble creating Beijing an operational
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or strategic laws that pause might be long enough for China to accomplish its
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goals
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visiting Washington in the world with a fee to comply weather in the taiwan
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strait
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East China Sea or elsewhere so it’s not take too much solace in the notion that
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China like behind America’s defense spending
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military technology already other indices a power
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even if true Charlie would hardly be the first with their power to defeat the
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strong
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if it puts its home court advantage to good use
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indeed history is littered with cases in which lesser
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imaginative determined adversaries dawn just
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so in a nutshell so I size up the Chinese strategic
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thank you streams gym
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good morning ladies gym before beginning my remarks I want to take a moment think
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the US Naval Institute
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FC 0 for inviting me to speak at co.’s for the third time
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it’s indeed a great honor and privilege for me to be invited
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especially with this great panel and especially given my remarks from last
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year
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anticipated that after last year’s playing direct assessment
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chinese expansionism I might never be invited back to this form
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but I was in here i am.
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no one likes it I told you so but I will ask you to indulge me as my remarks will
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have a bit at the I told you so in them
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as we witness the PRC continue its maritime expansionism campaign
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over the course of the last year it’s not just beijing’s works
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but it’s the actions the dealy Navy in the china coast guard
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responsible for upsetting the peace and stability
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indo-pacific region for instance last year I told you
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China’s quote taking control maritime areas that have never before been
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administered a controlled
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in the last five thousand years by any regime call China
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in that the People’s Republic is not doing it in an area up to 900 miles from
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the mainland
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as close as dozens of miles off the coast other nations
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that speech was well it was provocative
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even controversial in January 2013
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I even have apologized in it for the bluntness describing China’s
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expansionism as well being
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expansionism it sounded so aggressive than to simply state the facts
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what a difference a year makes as it turns out
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China’s Navy in civil maritime organizations more than validated our
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concerns
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as a senior US government official official recently stated
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there is growing concern that China’s pattern of behavior in the South China
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Sea
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reflects incremental effort by China to assert control
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over the area contained in the so-called 9-19
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despite the objections of its neighbors and despite the lack of any explanation
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or apparent basis under international law
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regarding the scope with the claim itself
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Chinese analysts now readily it publicly admit to evolution Lee’s campaign
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maritime expansionism president G shipping
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openly promotes China’s maritime impressions as an essential part of this
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China dream
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last year’s provocative assessment now seems obvious
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even conservative not forward leaning at all
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in January of 2013 Chinese warplanes were daily making simulated attack runs
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straight in japan or japanese naval forces within the East China Sea
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the activity was highlighted when Chinese bombers strike training missions
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into the Philippine Sea first appeal a history
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on the 29th January 2013 president G shipping delivered a hearted speech the
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Politburo
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described by some as reflecting a new militancy in which effectively ruled out
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compromise
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on territorial and security issues
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at the same time twenty South Seas Fleet warships conducted a five-day anti air
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attack an anti-nuclear exercise
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in the South China Sea while three warships from Ching Dow to the so
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went to the Philippine Sea for combat drew drills including
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quote the protection upmeyer time rights
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by the way the protection Ameritech rights as a Chinese you for this
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euphemism work or seizure of course all rights
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China’s neighbors the next week
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in the East China Sea Japan said a Chinese warship locked its fire control
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radar on to a japanese warship
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chided the night it for a month and then admitted it occurred
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but said that it was not a danger since the range between the two ships
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was too close for weapon system
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seriously you just can’t make this stuff up
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why we’re confident in the capabilities to Japan self-defense forces
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we appreciated their extraordinary restraint throughout this period
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and we support Japan’s call for diplomacy crisis management procedures
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in order to avoid a miscalculation
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dangerous incident it’s important to lower tensions
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to turn down the rhetoric in to exercise caution and restraint
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in the sensitive area in March of 2013
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as Beijing prepared for its National People’s Congress or NPC
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the MPC provided a high-profile platform to announce many of China’s long planned
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changes to support its expansion
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principally the National People’s Congress re reorganize China civil flee
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subordinating all fisheries in law enforcement cutters
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from other agencies into a single new organization called China Coast Guard
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which is still under the state oceanic administration
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the Civil bureau fronting beijing’s expansion is activities
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tensions in the South and East China Sea have deteriorated with the Chinese coast
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guard
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playing the role of antagonist harassing China’s neighbors
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well peeling Navy ships their protectors
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conduct for calls throughout the region promising friendship and cooperation
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we have heard many senior delay officers say that the elite navy
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in the Chinese coast guard efforts are not coordinated this
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is simply not true this campaign has been meticulously coordinated from
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beijing
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the NPC also allocated 1.6 billion dollars for improvements to
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disputed South China Sea outposts that the late vigorously is developing
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ports airfields water purification
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communications and surveillance capabilities it’s and its military
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occupations in the disputed Paracels
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and continued subsidizing civil activities
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in order to create the impression that the civil habitation at the notional
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son shot prefecture in Hainan Province meanwhile
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China described efforts by other nations to approve the habitability if they’re
26:01
out those
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as egregious provocations and responded with threats
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on the day that the NPC close last year appealing navy amphibious assault ship
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three combat sale from southern China for what was again described as
26:16
Rights Protection training the worships first conducted Island seizure drills in
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the Paracels
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then steam to change Scholl sixty miles from Malaysia
26:26
900 miles from China where they paused
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to drop a border marker while the crews were close to defend
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China’s southernmost territory
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then they broadcast globally in English
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the peeling AB cell c3 commander conducted this humiliating provocation
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during the lesions week-long biannual
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exercise defense exercise for exhibition known as Lima
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the peeling AB describe this is normal
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and you know what delay may be conducted another oath taking ceremony again on 26
27:01
January 2014
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sure sounds normal to me
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in the second half for 2013 the character of China’s naval training
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change focused towards realistic maritime combat operations on the high
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seas
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in addition to their long-standing task to restore taiwan to the mainland
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we witness the masses in CPS cross Military Region exercise
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mission action 2013 and concluded that the plae has been given a new task
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to be able to conduct a short sharp war to destroy
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Japanese forces in the East China Sea followed what can
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only be expected a seizure the same cartons
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or even the southern where you can see some other academics write about
27:47
the plae also trying to deter or destroy any attempted interference by the US
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naval and air forces
27:53
during exercise dawn or mobility 5
27:57
this unprecedented exercise focused on integrating
28:00
surface ships submarines and aircraft from all three fleets
28:04
and land-based missile forces and multi-disciplinary
28:07
counter intervention warfare strategy
28:11
in all last year we counted in Chinese press nine instances
28:15
purely Naval Surface Action Group Air Force’s
28:18
steaming them flying into the western Pacific to practice striking able
28:22
targets
28:24
the amount of time purely navy surface Action Group train in the Philippine
28:28
seas
28:28
now rivals that US
28:32
in addition to the P lace counter intervention strategy
28:36
plae in November heavily publicized its development other suffering ballistic
28:41
missile capability
28:43
Global Times piece and English was filled with helpful facts like
28:47
because midwestern states that the united states are sparsely populated
28:51
in order to increase the lethality our nuclear attacks
28:55
should mainly target the key cities on the west coast United States
28:59
so it’s a CL Los Angeles San Francisco
29:03
in San Diego the state endorsed newspaper went on to point out that
29:08
12 jail to nuclear warheads carried by one single type 094 SSBN
29:13
kill and will 5 to 12 million Americans
29:18
imagine the outrage a similar statement been made from any
29:21
US media outlet imagine the outrage
29:26
to put this in issue into perspective I fully expect the first type
29:30
first-ever tight 094 submarine-launched ballistic missile put
29:34
patrol will occur in 2014
29:39
then on a quiet day in late November the Friday before Thanksgiving several
29:42
photos mention
29:43
the plae abruptly declared in their defense identifications
29:47
East China Sea your see government media propaganda statements follow quickly
29:52
declaring this aid is give them a right to take quote-unquote emergency measures
29:57
against non-compliant aircraft internationals
30:00
airspace even aircraft that were not Victor that the Chinese
30:03
this unilateral action has been called out by senior US defense state
30:09
Department officials
30:10
as being quote a provocative act in a serious step in the wrong direction
30:15
unquote as I told you so last year
30:20
this your next I expect the People’s Republic of China will declare in aid is
30:24
in the South China Sea
30:26
this may be combined with what my senior analyst mister bernie Moreland has
30:29
assessed
30:31
maybe a vessel traffic management system for surface ships
30:34
as a purely declared its to control all ships and aircraft
30:38
within the South China Sea in a publicist
30:41
shortly after declaring it was all part but new Chinese Prefecture
30:46
evidence for the veracity of bonuses
30:49
Bernice assessment was made manifest last month with China declared its right
30:53
to control all fishing in the South China Sea
30:57
while the plae as long coveted in their field in the Spratly Islands
31:01
we should expect to see their new aircraft carrier the Liaoning
31:04
being used to back up their campaign to secure their neighbors coastal state
31:08
rights
31:09
in the South China Sea you will recall is Apple
31:12
focal mention China sir did this
31:16
your call last month China certain that simply having the aircraft hear it see
31:19
give them a right
31:20
to arrest USS Cowpens who was some 50 miles away from their carrier at the
31:25
beginning with the incident
31:27
more on that issue in the question and answer period if you’d like
31:30
as I come to a close I like to bring you some strategic context
31:35
emmylou watching is known in vietnam as a commander the massacre of 17
31:39
Vietnamese sailors standing in waist-deep water
31:42
it should worry 1988
31:45
in the west i’m lou is known as a commander the massacre this country
31:49
minute chinaman Square in 1989
31:53
however in China emmylou is known as the father the Chinese navy
31:57
in 1983 he stated their vision
32:00
he said China will establish naval supremacy within the first island chain
32:04
by 2010
32:06
turning it into an inland sea by 2020
32:10
China launcher naval supremacy within the second island chain
32:14
by 2040 China will have the power to obtain the dominance
32:18
US Navy in the Pacific and Indian Oceans
32:22
I think they’re ahead of schedule you
32:25
the the PRC five years ago in part on the 6.6
32:29
billion dollar project to increase China’s propaganda footprint around the
32:32
world
32:34
though we have our own intelligence resources all the facts are providing
32:37
you are published
32:38
in Chinese Communist Party funding approved open source publications
32:43
Beijing is paid dearly to bring this information to you
32:46
they’re proud of it they think it’s normal
32:51
I don’t know how China’s intentions could be any more transparent remember
32:55
I told you so thanks for your time
32:59
alright thanks to reporters said very provocative a sea la to be taken out so
33:02
now you’re gone wild want to ask questions
33:04
gentlemen we have three to go let’s wrap up the presentations by the top of the
33:09
hour leave at least 15 minutes for questions
33:11
Dave Adams from the seventh fleet perspective on the pointy end of the
33:15
spear
33:16
Dave it’s a great honor to be here today and to
33:19
did a chance to talk a little bit about the operations in the pacific
33:24
that are going on a talk about china thank you dab TSI earned the Naval
33:28
Institute against nighter device and daily
33:32
this is an important organization I don’t see him out there but I
33:35
just have to mention Fred rainbow who really
33:38
has meant is overrun is education program I think
33:41
if you haven’t seen what he’s done with that program it speaks a lot for Fred
33:45
and look at
33:46
all the young people is educating and mentoring and so a lot of us
33:50
who’ve written in Proceedings amor courage to right and dear to write and
33:54
speaker opinions and participate in the debate
33:58
is a big part of that and I’ll try to stay is true that as I can
34:02
and as a star just like say the positions all all
34:06
articulate today are meant to be thought-provoking that’s not necessarily
34:10
to be the answers
34:11
they’re certainly not the position of the US 7th fleet apartment near the
34:15
Department of Defense
34:16
were what up you know shaping the maritime strategy is what we’re about
34:20
today so
34:21
be interested in talking about that and what about china
34:24
what it what about China how do we have a strategy for China
34:28
Alfred Thayer Mahan in a book that we don’t read enough called the problem
34:32
with asia’s said
34:34
a China with unlimited resources but unconstrained in the use of those
34:38
resources
34:39
is a central problem and that’s the problem that we’re talking about today
34:43
how are they use all the military power the Jim final talks about and what will
34:48
our response be to that
34:50
to that power what is our strategy
34:54
we all know that we’re dressed strategically since for several decades
34:58
before in 2007 we published our
35:00
cooperative strategy for twenty first century CE power secretary lehman in the
35:05
pages are proceedings call that a proper performance
35:08
others said the strategy was to interested in avoiding conflict
35:13
and not enough about answering the challenges
35:16
up no one expected that strategy to be so quickly overshadowed
35:22
has been overshadowed by two things with people call non
35:26
strategies and I hope to and also I know it’s been working on has the answers in
35:31
his bag
35:32
and looking forward to reading them them but has been overshadowed by air sea
35:36
battle
35:37
in by rebalance or pivot to the Pacific
35:41
tune on strategies that are driving the strategic debate
35:44
both of which has problems one is too overly conventional in its thinking
35:48
air-sea battle
35:50
and the other one is challenged in execution because we continue to have
35:53
Middle East whiplash
35:55
it’s very difficult to execute that to execute that strategy
35:59
and from the debate is gone for some really important things from that 20
36:03
percent re strategy
36:04
which is preventing Wars is important spying to miss from our lexicon is a
36:10
discussion
36:11
love cooperative maritime partnerships across the world
36:14
to answer the challenges of irregular catastrophic
36:18
and disrupted challenges sometimes I think it’s for gone with Secretary Gates
36:22
said about
36:23
we have to be prepared to fight the wars were gonna fight not the worst we want
36:27
to buy
36:29
back in vogue is the mix misguided idea
36:32
that high in large scale warfare is both
36:36
the most pressing problem and are panacea
36:40
we have to be careful about these things as we think
36:43
about child he reminds me of an article nineteen ninety in Proceedings
36:48
by new Golightly it was called correcting three strategic mistakes he
36:52
wrote in ninety right before the fall
36:55
is now vice president for exxon buddy went on to be a speechwriter to colin
36:58
powell was a speechwriter for secretary dalton
37:00
he said we’re gonna make three strategic mistakes he said first
37:04
believing that a conventional defense is safer than nuclear deterrence
37:08
second he says be being myopic Lee focused on large-scale warfare
37:13
in preparing for that and third ignoring peripheral threats
37:17
like the tanker war in the goal and specifically tears
37:23
his advice should have been heeded then in his even more relevant now
37:28
I’d like to talk about that a little bit in the context China
37:33
Jim talked about the jail to they talked about any conflict that we would have
37:37
for china anne Karine ex would be cataclysmic
37:40
great powers these are great powers who have nuclear weapons
37:44
in the absence of a dialogue on strategic deterrence and ensuring that
37:49
our strategic deterrence is number one in the world
37:51
and there’s an article by and more bruner my cokie in this month’s
37:55
proceedings
37:56
tells how important it is and now also constrain any conflict if it were to
38:01
happen
38:02
any concept that thinks about China
38:06
attacking US bases and
38:10
the territorial our treaty allies is dangerous
38:14
any concept the talks about attacking mainland China
38:17
is dangerously asked or in a lack of acknowledgement that nuclear deterrence
38:22
has undermined the end of
38:25
large-scale conventional conflicts between great powers
38:28
endangers millions of lives so first of all strategic deterrent remains
38:32
important
38:33
and as jim talked about more provocatively is very clear that the
38:37
chinese are pursuing
38:38
strategic deterrent capability to deter us
38:42
in that will limit the conflict and that gets us to the second
38:46
a point that I’d like to say we have 2x brent scowcroft recently talked about an
38:51
article
38:51
we have to hedge against a major war but at the same time we can’t buy every
38:55
system to do that
38:57
so it’s very unlikely that we’re gonna have a major war we have to hedge
39:00
against that
39:01
but at the same time we have to realize that’s probably not the we’re gonna play
39:06
the army Marine Corps tells this journal McMasters tells us is in the New York
39:09
Times
39:10
I’m not sure we’re listening what is the we’re gonna fight
39:14
we also have to think hard about maybe culture
39:17
we do this the last good work on that was probably order in the massive war
39:21
it talks about how the navy culture is one that envisions itself primarily in
39:25
conducting sweeping fleet actions across the pacific
39:29
that is not the war that we’re going to fight it’s not the 1i believe we’re
39:32
gonna
39:33
we have to be cautious that selling United States Navy
39:36
on that concept is akin to selling drinks to alcohol
39:40
in somebody is going to have to pay the tax
39:43
and at the same time China is pursuing
39:47
hybrid Jim talked about this they’ve read the literature
39:52
they’re pursuing a hybrid approach to warfare not the big war
39:56
but it could be high tech hybrid low-tech legal
39:59
financial cyber and we’re already losing that won the South China Sea today
40:04
and we’re not focused on that energy in our strategy that peripheral conflict
40:08
if we learn nothing since 9/11 is
40:11
relegating peripheral threats to
40:15
a secondary challenge the United States can be a debilitating
40:19
strategic stake so with that
40:23
i would tell you that there’s a few things we need to do
40:26
in this is certainly not the entire strategy we need to hedge against the
40:29
big fight
40:30
we have to realize that our undersea advantage in our advantage in the air
40:34
greatly outpaces that China
40:37
gym I disagree with me but I will tell you that
40:40
that’s not the fight they want and they’re going to lose if they go that
40:43
way
40:44
we need to ensure that we maintain those advantages and we have adequate weapons
40:47
in the Tories
40:48
and weapons in those areas to
40:52
we need to make the rebalance real in order to back up our allies
40:55
by ensuring we have adequate carrier presence in the pacific
40:59
we don’t get too thrown on a day-to-day
41:03
10 carrier presence would be nice we need to ensure we have enough submarines
41:07
in the Pacific
41:08
which may not be solved by building more submarines we need to think
41:11
unconventionally like positioning more submarines in the Pacific
41:14
we did that ten years ago one there was a lot of resistance
41:17
can we put them in other places in the pacific can really think through that
41:20
there’ll be a lot of opposition in order to do that but I think we could do that
41:23
and that would send a major signal
41:25
we also need to increase the number of crude as units and all over other units
41:29
and doing that and we need to be able to conduct electromagnetic maneuver warfare
41:33
all the time we also need to make sure our strategic to turn has a number one
41:37
priority
41:38
and it’s a strategic dialogue is occurring between us in China
41:41
so neither side is gets ourselves in a position where this miscalculation
41:46
which is just singer put in his book because cataclysmic to the world
41:50
but then in conclusion there’s the other side of the coin
41:53
you have to understand asia’s problem
41:57
is asia’s probs United States can lead
42:00
and we can support we cannot solve the problem
42:04
Asian deep hatreds that occur the rivalries
42:07
everyone has to become adults and have to be willing to go to the table and
42:11
negotiate
42:12
we have to help the nation’s build the capacity to defend themselves
42:16
which we’re not very good at those lessons on Afghanistan Iraq we need to
42:20
bring out to the Pacific
42:22
we have no white holes in the pacific hardly
42:25
I remember when at home alone was asked hey what is
42:28
the biggest problem with the US military use the C you know any said the army
42:32
today we should say it’s the Coast Guard and we’re gonna have to fund the Coast
42:36
Guard and not to do the conventional missions but to come and help with the
42:39
white or problem
42:40
and in the pacific we have to think unconventionally hedge against the big
42:44
war
42:45
and be ready to win a hybrid war which we’re not even thinking about
42:48
and if we lose a war if the Navy has its vietnam
42:51
it’s gonna be dirty hybrid paramilitary war
42:56
something thank you
42:59
thank you very much david now for the Warriors 1 comment
43:02
I want to share with you from ever washing we were talking about things he
43:06
had a lot of asks
43:07
things he wanted to do with United States Navy as did we
43:11
and I said sir I’m gonna have to run that by the lawyers
43:15
we have lots who orders years no Photoshop strong
43:19
because our on our general in the PO any
43:22
I said you have lotsa rules just like us
43:25
so the way we view the world news rules we view it through
43:29
legal jurisprudence and water check stores
43:32
stew give us your perspective thank them all for
43:36
appreciate and like to build on
43:39
on Dave’s couple his themes one is
43:42
Cooper strategy and and to resist the move asia. responsibility
43:46
I need to emphasize that these are my own comments and do not reflect the
43:50
official position the United States Navy
43:52
I wanna make four points today from well call it
43:55
somewhat legal perspective first is that
43:59
international law is an essential tool
44:02
to resolve some these complex issues particularly in the east
44:07
in South China Sea these
44:10
issues these complex issues can be grouped
44:13
into what I would like to call three baskets
44:16
one basket is disputes over territorial claims to islands
44:21
think san ka coups thinks bradley’s think the pair cells
44:25
the second group issues is over excessive
44:28
assertions maritime jurisdiction think
44:32
love declaring easy’s from Iraq’s or china is 9-19 which covers most to the
44:38
South China Sea
44:40
in the third is competition over natural resources
44:43
think hydrocarbons and fish
44:46
I strongly believe that the emphasis by the united states and
44:50
others in the region on a rules-based approach
44:53
is the best course to restore stability
44:56
in to maintain peace as these disputes will inevitably play out
45:02
this rules-based narrative was highlighted by Secretary of State
45:06
Clinton
45:06
in 2010 in Hawaii and I’m sure many people in this room remembered so that
45:11
moment
45:12
where she stated that the US has a national interest
45:16
in the freedom of navigation open access to Asia’s maritime Commons
45:21
and respect for international law in the South China Sea in this theme has been
45:24
repeated
45:26
by successive secretaries
45:29
state and defense my second point
45:33
is that their are ready are ext and
45:37
structures and mechanisms in place that permit
45:40
this rules-based approach to work
45:44
these include institutional body such as Ozzie on
45:48
treaty law such as the law Dixie convention
45:52
and international tribunals and one of the bright spots
45:56
in international law jurisprudence is the ongoing
45:59
arbitration between the Philippines and China
46:02
this case was filed more than a year ago by the Philippines
46:06
in AC to use arbitration proceedings under the law of the sea convention to
46:10
do two things
46:12
challenge China’s 9-19 as well
46:15
as China’s claim term airtime entitlements from
46:19
mere rocks are low tide elevations
46:22
the panel will likely make a ruling in mid-2015 so keep your eyes open for that
46:29
the second thing I would say about that proceeding is China’s refusal
46:33
to participate in this under annex 7 the law of the sea convention
46:38
underscores the need for all regional actors
46:41
to continue to embrace this rules-based
46:45
approach for conflict resolution
46:48
my third point is that actions do matter
46:52
actions and words I believe the following specific steps would be
46:56
particularly helpful in promoting
46:59
international law norms first all countries should clear fight in that
47:03
region should clarify
47:04
their maritime claims and I would just note here that Vietnam and the
47:09
Philippines have done a good job in the last couple years to try to perfect
47:13
their claims second as assistant secretary of state Danny Russell just
47:18
called for congressional testimony
47:20
China should clarify to the international community
47:24
spur seis Lee what its nine daschle I’m means
47:27
or adjusted to bring it into accordance with international law
47:31
third code of conduct should be worked on with more alacrity
47:35
in force this is a very broad statement but countries
47:39
should respect the sovereignty of other nations
47:42
whether meeting them in international waters in the air
47:46
were in their respective capitals this respect for sovereignty
47:50
would militate against declaring ages without consultation
47:54
in with out recognizing the status state aircraft in the zone
47:59
and lastly from a US perspective I think it’s lied on critical
48:03
that freedom of navigation in overflight is not eroded
48:07
particularly in the area the South China Sea
48:10
this specifically applies to china’s efforts
48:13
to allocate the security interest in the exclusive economic zone just to be clear
48:19
when the easy was established under the law of the sea convention
48:23
in 1982 there was great to be
48:26
over the nature the easy it was decided at that time
48:30
that coastal states would not get eight security interest
48:34
in that zone and that freedom a navigation
48:38
would not be eroded in that zone where the commercial aircraft
48:42
or military vessels and although
48:45
due regard will be required by User States
48:48
the coastal state does not enjoy
48:52
any special security by operational law
48:55
so a statement by PRC’s motha spokesman in 2010
49:00
after US Navy operations in the Yellow Sea that China opposes
49:05
any party to take military actions in there easy without permission
49:09
is simply inconsistent with international law
49:12
it also appears to be a standard that is inconsistent with the recent operations
49:17
plae and ships in the easier if the united states of the Hawaii and Guam
49:22
and maybe recently in the waters Australia Indonesia
49:26
so in summary my point today is simple
49:31
meaningful adherence to international law and norms
49:34
is our best chance of calming the waters in the western Pacific
49:38
in any attempt to redefined clear legal norms relative to the exclusive economic
49:44
zone
49:45
or to restrict freedom of navigation in overfly
49:48
or not helpful and should be resisted by the US
49:52
and other responsible actors in the region
49:55
thank you thanks very much to student on a very important point I’ll tell you one
50:00
other thing
50:01
I discussed with averell woohoo many times on the pointer from San Diego
50:05
Washington he said
50:07
you americans want to talk about freedom of navigation you don’t understand the
50:11
meaning of the word
50:12
it’s not free navigation its freedom a passage
50:15
we have no issue with you passing through our you see from point A
50:20
to point B just don’t stop in loiter
50:23
that’s your definition freedom of navigation stopping order
50:26
I said well we operate with due regard and so we’re not gonna go anywhere
50:30
those are international waters so these are things that we have fundamental
50:33
differences
50:33
on and we’ve got to work through with the feeling maybe as we move forward
50:37
they all NASCAR wrap it up in the next seven minutes late singer’s will have 15
50:41
minutes for questions
50:42
102 for all mine to you in the audience we’re gonna pass the mic sup
50:46
and what you ask and if we run outta time will stay here afterwards a warning
50:49
to
50:50
engaging and Q&A for as long as you like they’ll
50:54
thanks sir I mean a shift gears a little bit my colleagues have mostly focused on
50:59
the impact to the Chinese navy in the western Pacific region
51:03
makes a lotta sense this is where Chinese counter intervention what we
51:06
call
51:06
280 cable is focused where the maritime claims
51:10
and the enforcement of those that effect is our allies is
51:13
is really occurring but i wanna pull back a little bit geographically and
51:17
look at perhaps how the chinese think
51:19
were potentially think about blue water operations beyond
51:23
these new jersey’s and I focus on this a little bit because
51:27
this is an area where some very distinguished scholars
51:30
who think very deeply about what changes you doing
51:33
the American claims in your sees I’m still are surprisingly dismissive
51:37
china’s potential aspirations and reach out beyond the western Pacific
51:42
in one case describing Chinese blue-water capabilities low and
51:45
capabilities
51:46
relevant primarily for low-intensity peacetime missions in areas further
51:49
afield
51:52
this is a case where I think we are perhaps
51:55
the in this situation and Becker described yesterday in the information
51:59
dominance panel
52:01
a not necessarily completely person with the chinese mean when they talk
52:04
through some other doctrine and some others she’s content
52:08
I’ll talk very deeply about their defensive strategy but if you look at
52:12
the China defence white paper their annual authoritative statement
52:16
there planning an intent at the highest levels for their defense policy for the
52:20
year
52:21
they point out the Chinese Armed Forces unswervingly implement the military
52:24
policy active defense
52:26
now its military operations word strategically defensive in 10
52:30
and you’re interested usually defensive but
52:33
doing so under active defense through a variety would look like very offensive
52:37
means in some cases almost pre-emptory means
52:40
so seizing on that defensive language
52:44
I’m is perhaps easy to neglect the parts in China’s various authoritative
52:47
document with a talk about their intent to move out
52:50
on the western Pacific into the blue water the same defense white paper is
52:54
good enough to call out
52:55
the Chinese Navy’s assign training past into groups
52:59
in your cities task and the party’s task the first these tests are in
53:02
a quote if you with these operating in complex battlefield environment
53:06
remote early-warning comprehensive control which is to say c2
53:10
open season or did interception long-range raid
53:13
interesting and place a ring worked for investor protection in distant seas
53:19
the the Chinese navy is it is things through
53:23
how to implement these tasks you look at it from a Chinese camp when i think is
53:26
really influenced by two potential
53:29
pillars of thofe the first is their assessment what their own strategic
53:32
interests are in there really three different ways this could play out
53:36
it’s interesting to watch is the thing through this com
53:40
the Chinese are acutely aware the owner Realty
53:44
the dependency their economy on the international market
53:47
on the trade system that’s established on floor resources through the ocean
53:51
areas
53:52
and they see that both as the driver the economic prosperity that underscores
53:57
the party survival but also as a potential vulnerability
54:02
so in the most benign case I think this could play out
54:05
Chinese conclude that the international order that exists is really in their
54:08
long-term interest
54:10
not just in their interest for a limited period and that their military needs to
54:14
contribute to you the security
54:16
and the preservation that system carry out with bush in town
54:19
2004 gave the People’s Liberation Army is the new historic missions
54:24
the forced that could carry out those missions in the blue water is still a
54:28
nontrivial naval force
54:30
even if it it moved there with intent to preserving the international system
54:34
up it’s possible however debt Chinese
54:37
leaders and planners will decide that the United States is not in a position
54:40
to act as Navy has for
54:42
for years has won the principal guarantee years the international system
54:45
China depends on
54:47
either because we are declining power is a common view in China among Chinese
54:52
leadership
54:52
eventually our resources will not support sustaining this international
54:56
system
54:57
don’t need to be in a position to do so or on the other side if you look at
55:01
the potential the United States to be independent physically overseas energy
55:05
the ice it will simply lose interest in preserving security the sea wayne’s
55:10
that movie energy to our allies and our trading partners
55:14
and so China will need to develop a blue water for states in a position to do
55:18
this
55:19
in the worst case the Chinese could conclude that they need to be able to
55:22
preserve the movement
55:24
goods and services across the oceans in direct opposition
55:28
to the United States Navy and you see discussion I in
55:31
DC where I hang my head at the moment think tank circles
55:35
about the idea distant blockade on china about the potential vulnerability you
55:40
Chinese imports which place to a lot of their fears and perceptions are ready
55:44
you can very much see how a prudent Chinese military planner
55:47
would suggest that the at least need hedge against this possibility
55:51
potentially by being in a position to act against US Navy
55:55
at distance from the western Pacific that’s the rational assessment
56:00
the other thing that’s factoring into the Chinese calculus is essentially
56:04
their perception their international profile the Chinese maybe
56:07
rolling up in November 2012
56:11
general secretary in town with spoke to the 18th National Congress
56:15
the party wanna miss semel speeches where he talked about the need to
56:18
develop
56:19
a powerful armed forces that are commensurate with china’s international
56:22
standing
56:23
this was the same speech where he got a lot of attention for saying that China
56:26
needs to be built
56:27
into america time our one day the
56:31
justifications we’ve heard in a lot of circles for China
56:35
deploying its first aircraft carrier downing was that China was the only
56:39
permanent members
56:40
Security Council did not have an aircraft carrier in China’s
56:43
christy is required an aircraft carrier
56:47
our Chinese counterparts are in some ways very traditional nablas
56:51
the Navy is incredibly popular in China and so
56:55
whatever the rational strategic calculus is driving the expansion Chinese navy
56:59
I mean virtually guaranteed China’s perception its international standing
57:03
amplified demand as they’re going forward
57:07
I’m so bottom line
57:10
we are confident from the public documents Chinese Navy has
57:14
pass to develop a blue-water capabilities that is endorsed by their
57:18
senior leadership
57:20
and that they are as naval professionals curing that out to the best of their
57:23
ability in the resources that they have
57:25
and that they’re still in the process working through long-term
57:29
what their pool water key really looks at
57:33
it is a work in progress it has a couple benign outcomes
57:38
but I will suggest you that the trajectory that they’re on is
57:41
not encouraging the benign outcomes will be
57:44
with them race with that
57:48
they’ll thank you very much I can underscore enough what they also about
57:51
the popularity of the Chilean Navy
57:53
in China if you ride the Metro Beijing
57:57
there are video cameras on every car and the entire time that I was on the Metro
58:02
when I went down to tiananmen square in the Forbidden City and back and around
58:06
the ring
58:07
there was a tape lying love Chinese carrier operations
58:11
captain Josh are captain dial for still worker
58:14
Apple will President Xi out on ships person she with
58:17
naval troops very impressive been saying about them
58:21
PL day the people’s liberation army
58:24
additionally I want and went into a shop there was
58:27
high and shop for a new I could find a price that was probably credible
58:31
the Bison T well I was in there there is a Chinese spokesmodel
58:35
wanted to show me a model aircraft carrier filled with their liqueur
58:40
mood and it was downing the jump jet and it was like this long
58:44
porcelain with silver and gold they’re very very programs worth over two
58:48
thousand dollars 10
58:50
like by side we have tell them we have 11
58:53
we apply thank you anyway so I’ll let me open it up to questions
58:59
sir
59:10
the question I have is most what we talked about here
59:14
the american public inside baseball that
59:17
first biology 2nd Allen G the PRC
59:21
think the frat the PRC to the United States
59:24
its cyber Fred you could undermine our intellectual capital or technology
59:28
advantages
59:29
and our own privacy with credit cards and that sort of stuff back
59:34
so the curiosity that I have risen a good in here any you address it
59:37
Italian the United States ni can affect chinese behavior in cyberspace
59:43
what the intelligence take that wants a gym you answer that
59:47
deal
59:53
take
59:57
I think
60:01
Ariel about now now you can every
60:05
okay good iight say that
60:08
the the question race is really a serious
60:12
area of consideration so it’s not just the kinetic
60:15
actions and I outlined in my speech there you know there’s more than just
60:19
the ships at sea
60:20
it’s the missile systems it’s the whole infrastructure that they have
60:24
but as we saw in this last year some other reports that came out in the press
60:28
for mandiant
60:29
others about China’s cyber capabilities and efforts at their
60:33
you know from up from a military standpoint they’re investing in that
60:37
part of the warfare state mention you know across many spectrum so
60:42
what can we do to shape their behavior I think what I suggest
60:46
in the Canary crowned Miss certainly applicable in the non-economic well
60:49
which is to say we have to expose these activities
60:53
we have to you know point out that they’re doing this
60:57
and then you know work to the best we can i think thats
61:01
you know the genius behind the formation or information on that score
61:05
was to make sure that we’re we can defend ourselves I’m not sure we can
61:09
stop them from pursuing those activities my personal belief
61:13
but we need to be aware that we need to call it out and that we need to be able
61:16
to defend our networks
61:19
the only thing that 04 back in a little bit
61:23
the season sees thats really obviously or government problem
61:26
what the Navy needs to be prepared to do is operate
61:30
in the faces cyber as a contest domain
61:33
and insure that is here is pointed out we measure
61:37
are dependency and our ability to fall back
61:41
elegantly to the essential command-and-control to conduct our
61:45
operations
61:47
surrogates on a and in real quick you get into the real point it’s not just
61:51
cyber
61:52
if you look at the South China Sea campaign in the talked about this and
61:55
unrestricted warfare which is far people to talk to a military non-military
61:59
all weapons new weapons cyber financial
62:02
so this is a low level your scenes South China Sea if if tensions get higher we
62:07
go into crisis
62:08
we’re not gonna season when you think you’re gonna see gonna see this hybrid
62:11
war
62:11
and frankly we don’t have a lot of answers for we gotta think our we have
62:15
point answers
62:16
you know information on this work in this answer but we don’t have a coherent
62:20
ourselves in the navy’s not thinking about this
62:24
James just two quick points
62:27
cyber by Trey words I think that weaver
62:30
speakers all to call attention to the fact that this idea access it needs.
62:34
axis is really even my remarks just was old
62:39
for him limited mostly to the military images this is not
62:42
this is not a military problems solely its would see that
62:45
India accesses the the subs between strategic problem called
62:49
access which would involve book delivery the cyber role but also thinking about
62:53
things like the policy and economics and all that thing in international law and
62:57
all the things we were the other speakers
62:59
wasn’t so that’s point one pointe shoes
63:03
who just happens my seminar yesterday before jumped on a plane
63:06
him those oranges
63:09
are we going to do a fascinating discussion in the context of the war on
63:12
al-qaeda
63:13
about the nature the cyber climbers we
63:16
we spent a lot of time talking about the sea as a quite common as my hands
63:21
there’s a there’s a big debate afford about to what extent the cyber
63:24
his what’s the mood in the woods them
63:27
the problem model for the about that about that mean
63:30
of conflict and competition is a conventional war
63:34
desert provide the best intellectual good as we think about what to do with
63:39
us
63:39
records what students adjust to the you insurgency actually
63:43
for has some some significant with the law
63:46
this is way above a similar do things other students at all those
63:50
or law enforcement another another potential model we were from earlier
63:54
lawyers down the table so some things that which
63:57
about international treaties and institutions what night you can actually
64:00
get
64:01
you can execute after book value about the those terms
64:04
stores the tools that are available to us to achieve your goals and
64:08
role thanks and your question is a broader picture
64:11
for anti accessor it I’ll survivors knees updated
64:15
were in China deal and I and the boys Street met with the
64:18
China Institute cultural and international relations punch a PhD you
64:22
see all
64:23
working on English the form the foundation intellectual basis for
64:28
feed to their future and OC really smart guys
64:31
so we they told us from the embassy country team must be softball questions
64:35
we sat down with them for launch one of the first things come out your mouth was
64:39
pay we’ve read this article by guy named greener
64:43
Walsh it’s called breaking the kill chain are
64:46
it it seems late you know that you want to attack us acetal
64:50
that’s about RC battle breaking the children’s bothers you about a great
64:53
article I’m really glad that you read it I wish I could give more people the
64:56
United States to read
64:57
it’s not about china it’s about anti access area knowledge about the global
65:01
comments which began outside 12 miles
65:03
we will not be deterred will operate there with impunity just like you can
65:07
and anybody that prevents us from doing so will feel the wrath love
65:11
air-sea battle to support are access
65:14
are maneuverability within the bell space so there quietly
65:18
doctor jack want sir
65:28
military Sunsail
65:32
approach to some these matters standpoint for knowing your adversary
65:37
some might say know your enemy where do we thank God in our planning
65:41
is the in pointer the goal the objective
65:45
the chinese guy were that word
65:48
early up to really take this this
65:51
their country sir let me offer one 3-pointer
65:55
over no in we’ve talked a lot today about
65:58
three elements in time diplomatic information a lot on military
66:03
we haven’t talked a lot about the economy last time I was in China
66:06
covers senior to store are more was very eloquent very well-educated
66:11
and very understanding western ways as I walked out the door he said to me
66:16
by the way for a shock jock be careful what you do with your economy
66:19
because what you do will affect us and that’s the EP’s
66:23
that we haven’t talked about so we look at a long-term plan where China’s goals
66:27
is it to become a provider in a provider
66:30
International Security or an antagonist I don’t think we exactly know yet
66:35
but I’ll tell you this they like proverbs if I’m a launch or Kyle on your
66:40
hundred dollars
66:40
and you default on the loan you’re in trouble if I’m a loan sharking alone you
66:45
1.3 trillion dollars
66:46
and you default on the loan I’m in trouble so that’s out
66:49
inextricably tied we or in the economy John
66:53
wearing sir I’ll take a break
66:56
well there were only a couple analysts together thoughts
66:59
yes it does there’s a bit as a running debate on the the extent to which the
67:02
answer this classical Chinese dredges
67:04
she needs to be jim modern China but a lot of what he says is universal
67:09
took so I think it’s a it’s only appropriate to take that as a starting
67:12
point
67:13
to dinner to respond to your question I would go to the greatest strategist a
67:16
part-time
67:17
yogi berra uses the protectionist of especially about the future
67:22
burrito it’s very tough to predict what’s and some others rival
67:26
governments of mine having said that I think that in particular just for the
67:30
whole show that so the Chinese are usually pretty good about
67:33
telling us what they want what they intend to do
67:36
just a just a touch on some photos we were talking about
67:39
access about navigation veto
67:43
is absurd military people but no matter who you talk two inch
67:47
they will tell you that we don’t care about obstructing navigation
67:51
what navigation needs navigation the right to pass through going from point A
67:55
to point B almost exactly what
67:57
photos so to be the question is not so much
68:01
axis tonight military terms as partial access to
68:06
this is achieved United States accepts that
68:09
services the socially imposed on the United States a very difficult
68:13
will minute value of the object terms I watched as the United States value
68:17
everything other than freedom of navigation
68:20
for example territorial claims the rights allies and so on and so forth
68:25
that’s besos not natural got mines around
68:28
so in this is the the Chinese the cannon director think that’s
68:32
awesome
68:36
take a crack at just sayin that
68:39
I agree with the this the premise that sends yes and I think the Chinese really
68:43
believe that
68:44
they can maneuver in bring the bear all elements
68:48
national power to get what they want without firing a shot
68:51
but we also know that they directed their military
68:54
to be ready because its part the pressure
68:58
and so their military is going to have the capability to be able to
69:02
get them to achieve their goals so the real question is what it’s there
69:06
in state and they tell us told us in
69:10
last march shipping said we have a china dream
69:14
we want to be restored we want to be rejuvenated to our rightful place
69:19
so the question is what are those elements restoration
69:23
part of it from enable perspective is what’s interest to me and I think
69:26
this audiences from a naval perspective
69:30
they believe that the first island chain is there’s
69:33
their territory and they want to have it restored to them
69:37
so that’s where the friction points going to be
69:41
I’m I think it’s very important that we look at I don’t I’m not sure not sure
69:44
exactly what their jobs are but it’s clear
69:47
we need more people to study language study then understand that
69:50
but it’s clear they’ve read the influence of sea power on history
69:53
and that they want to use maritime power to achieve their objectives
69:57
at the same time I don’t think the really read it because there’s this part
69:59
about the character of the government
70:01
being a critical part that and if they don’t solve that problem that
70:05
from I talked about their internal problems they believe that they drop
70:10
below seven percent growth they’re gonna be in big trouble doctor day finkelstein
70:13
that a couple weeks ago so as we look at what they’re doing
70:16
I don’t believe they’ll be able to sustain this expansion long if they
70:19
don’t
70:20
come in line with freedom free markets
70:23
freedom complying with international norms rules laws and standards
70:27
it’s a fast Ian bargain that there that there that they’re taking
70:31
so thats on the positive side for us they can sustain this wrong
70:35
if they don’t change their internal constraints
70:41
with a question back here back here
70:45
actually I have two questions first is
70:49
what do we need to do or what event needs to occur
70:54
to convince are Senate to ratify on clothes
70:58
the second one years can we or should we
71:02
try to implement a xsi:type
71:05
agreement with China to prevent so
71:09
incidents such as accountants on
71:12
on what’s to answer the on clothes question I thought there was going to be
71:15
a very 10 way over there talking about rules behavior
71:18
the actual Chinese actually accept the fact that we haven’t signed it that we
71:22
subscribe to it
71:23
and it was less of a problem I thought on the issue
71:27
Inc see XE a is a throwback to the Cold War
71:31
between two superpowers unpopularity we don’t want to create that kind of
71:36
environment
71:37
in our relationship with China we would prefer to have a peaceful rise and we
71:40
would prefer to have
71:42
more cordial like discussions rather than
71:45
something that is black and white as is the Kings
71:48
agreement so we’re pursuing this dialogue on rules
71:52
behavior through Military Merit I’m
71:55
consultation agreement and other talks like the defense policy
71:59
consul to talks and from that falls out smaller working group
72:03
lawyers other naval officers to resolve the issues
72:06
see story where the thing that I would you say
72:11
Apple that I think all all
72:14
that the last three administrations been very supportive
72:18
aunque los all those in the executive department department state department
72:21
defense
72:23
are supportive the US exceeding to the law of the sea convention their country
72:28
currently 164 nations that have exceeded to the convention this Constitution the
72:32
Seas
72:34
I but I’m not sure where has to be
72:37
ratified by the Senate actually exceeded to at this point
72:41
and I’m not confident that we’re going to see that in the near future
72:44
it is in national interested US
72:48
to do it as soon as possible it
72:51
it prevents us from having to rely on customary international law we do stated
72:55
all the
72:56
the navigation provision is as a more formal mentioned earlier are reflective
73:00
customer international also we have that but were prevented
73:04
from influencing some the administrative organs
73:08
related to the convention we don’t have a judge on the international tribunal on
73:12
the law of the sea
73:14
we can submit continental shelf
73:17
to to to the body under aunque los and and then it goes to our lack of
73:22
credibility when we talk about this
73:23
I think there’s overwhelming rationale to exceed
73:27
to the convention appreciate you bringing
73:30
great question we have time for one more and then we’ll be happy to stay
73:33
afterwards
73:33
on the move over dear sir
73:39
thank you very much earns very a stimulating
73:42
I’ve been in China since 2000
73:46
and I just really have a couple comment sir you know
73:49
now believed in the fact that
73:52
China should really control Asia
73:56
he also believe the United States should control only
74:00
North and South America and of course the rest would be Europe so he
74:04
use all these three areas a China is
74:07
as you know is building a very space-based
74:11
global military capabilities so it’s not only see power
74:15
so we have to understand where that’s coming and I look at this niceee
74:19
you know who’s the in a blur behind
74:23
China’s aggressive growth in the truth is its
74:26
really the US consumer and
74:29
China has been preparing for global dominance
74:32
as far back as the nineteen sixties
74:35
and I think we all know and I know personally
74:39
that China’s rapidly using stolen technology
74:43
to reach parity with the US forces as a final comment
74:47
which I I think the panel has really been sober
74:50
by the way is
74:54
this is a soviet-style government
74:57
with a kinda but near
75:00
up capitalism and you know we
75:03
we tend to analyze China in our Western
75:07
minded thinking and I think no one gentleman at the end
75:11
I think he can get some very good points looking at china historically
75:16
so these are just kinda comments and
75:19
maybe that might activate some some comments you know response from your
75:23
part thank you
75:26
lights are great comments and I think
75:29
week we probably all talking for us today on
75:32
each one of those each is that you brought up will be throwed up for
75:35
anything
75:36
team would like to say in response I would just like to say I think a
75:40
doctor kissinger’s recent book is is good reading
75:44
I don’t personally believe that we have the irreconcilable differences
75:48
with China we had with the Soviet Union I believe our differences are reconcile
75:54
over time I believe their internal battle that will go on as the most
75:57
important one
75:58
as far as which way to go but at the same time
76:01
we never seen a china that has done very good at
76:05
really be in an expansionist power taking over other people’s
76:09
despite what we’re seeing in the East and South China Sea china likes to
76:12
consume cultures intimidate to get their way
76:16
and things like that and that has to change but at the same time I don’t
76:19
think we’re facing
76:20
threat of global domination were irreconcilable differences
76:24
weren’t extra 10 x2 stencil threat to US security
76:28
directly indirectly yes but not directly
76:40
so in the issue irreconcilable differences I would agree with you
76:44
but we touched a little bit on what is China’s desired in state and I think
76:49
as we’ve said they’re very clear least in what they want to achieve whether or
76:53
not they have the means
76:54
definitely go to it you look at right writings the central party school
76:58
writings which are very
76:59
very authoritative the idea national rejuvenation by the middle of this
77:03
century
77:04
and what that actually means for Chinese people
77:07
I’m the key question in my mind is analyst is
77:11
do the Chinese Chinese decision makers believe very reconcilable differences:
77:16
is a China with its rightful place in the world
77:20
consistent with the US in a position that we believe is strategically in
77:25
court
77:26
important and so while we may not see reconcilable differences:
77:31
suggest that debate still going on in China and we’re not sure how that’s
77:35
going to turn out
77:35
night the last thing I would add I just think it’s important to see
77:40
if they’re going to adhere to international law it’s one thing
77:43
to use the words international law it’s another thing
77:47
act within the constraints national I think it’s going to be a significant
77:51
factor in
77:52
X just make one statement which is
77:56
you need to look at the strategic trendline you to look back
78:01
fifty years ago thirty years ago 20 10
78:04
in the project out another 20 30 40 50
78:08
seventy years China has
78:11
satellites in space they’re putting people in space are putting Rovers in
78:16
space
78:17
on on planets they’re sending you know submerged vessels down to the bottom
78:21
the debt to the ocean they’re sending their fleets
78:25
you know ten years ago if told this audience
78:28
ten years ago china would have frigates in the Mediterranean escorting
78:32
United Nations vessels that are carrying
78:35
ok chemical weapons from Syria you’d say you’re crazy
78:39
okay so it’s all a matter of perspective and it’s all a matter of
78:44
you know what china thinks is their rightful place
78:47
and so that should concern us and we should study that thank you very much
78:54
and that should wrap us up we’ll be happy to stay I won’t turn back over
78:58
DePaul
78:58
I want thanked the audience for coming today your wonderful questions
79:02
participation and thank our pals job
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